ABSTRACT: The lower Yellow River channel was maintained by artificial levees between 1580 and 1849. During this period, 280
levee breaches occurred. To estimate sediment storage on the floodplains outside the levees, a regression model with a decadal time
step was developed to calculate the outflow ratio for the years when levee breaching occurred. Uncertainty analysis was used to
identify the likely outflow ratio. Key variables of the model include annual water discharge, a proxy for levee conditions, and potential
bankfull discharge of the channel before flood season. Uncertainty analysis reveals an outflow ratio of 0.35–0.56. We estimate
that during this period, 18.8–30.1% of the total ~312 Gt of sediment load was deposited on the floodplains outside the levees.
Human-accelerated erosion in the Loess Plateau caused a 4-fold increase in sediment delivery to the lower Yellow River, which
could not be accommodated by channel morphodynamic changes. As a result, 21.2–27.5% of the total sediment load was deposited
within the levees, creating a super-elevated channel bed that facilitated an uncommonly high breach outflow ratio. Hence, the factor
of a large super-elevation relative to the mean main channel depth should be considered when designing diversions to restore floodplains.